Citizens of the United States of America: Welcome to the Perfect Prison!
“Where’s the beef?”: We need 10 - 25 Million More Workers & Low Unemployment Numbers Signal Disaster Approaching!
ADDRESSED TO: All Governors, Senators, Congressmen and Presidential Candidates
COPIED TO: Nationwide Press Agencies and Newspapers
Over 25,000 Other People with a Need To Know
Wednesday April 30th, 2008
“Where’s the beef?”: We need 10 - 25 Million More Workers & Low Unemployment Numbers Signal Disaster Approaching!
I think I must begin with an explanation for the sarcastic style, sometimes disrespectful tone and length of this open letter. I have chosen this style because of the urgency of the two issues I discuss to our nation, its economy and its future as a global leader. The two issues are interrelated and examined together. The two issues do not seem to getting the attention they should be since they currently limit every aspect of our economy and its potential growth. Without successfully addressing these two issues we can grow no further and will enter a period of continuous decline falling further into recession and possibly a very long depression.
“Where’s the beef?” is the critical question for all Governors and Presidential Candidates. I am not talking about cows in the country; I am talking about the people needed to grow our economy, fill the schools, theaters, restaurants, houses, jobs and replace military men along with retirees. Many of you are pontificating and waxing wild about the need for workers (even starting Job Cabinets and calling for temporary worker programs), yet not one of you seem to be talking about the fundamental element of economic growth - PEOPLE. Sorry folks, but Job Cabinets and guest worker programs are not going to get us there. Many people are rightfully calling for the legalization of “illegal immigrants”, but again, this won’t get us there either. It will help in the short term, if done quickly and with respect for the critical role they already play in our economy, but not in the long term. Of course, this task should not be undertaken until the border with Mexico is sealed and managed because we would not want to go through this process again.
The labor and population shortage ahead of us is at least 10 - 25 million hard working souls with at approximately 2.1 children in their homes (20 to 60 million people). There are many ways to justify this number, including:
a) Working from historical population growth rates offset by productivity gains
b) Adding together the estimated number of illegal immigrants working in the country, a forecast of retirees, current job openings and job openings to replace marginal employees
c) Looking at how many jobs we have outsourced since 1990.
My personal rationale for this number, though not statistically valid, comes from the fact that during the past three months I traveled in Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico. While I was traveling, I looked at the empty houses and the empty business locations and noted that we are “still building on”. As I traveled, I noticed Help Wanted signs everywhere; hundreds just on the roads and streets I traveled. Over the past year, I have also been to many other cities around the country, and found the same thing. Colleagues of mine from around the country have reported the same problem in their own home states as well.
I tried as hard as I could to recall the number of times in political speeches and other information I have read, where any of you predicted or warned of too many houses, too many business buildings and not enough workers. I cannot remember any politician predicting such a thing (my apologies in advance to those who did and were ignored by their peers).
As I thought about the issue further, it occurred to me that either I had missed or forgotten your messages, or most of you have never raised the issue of the importance of a growing population in relation to a growing economy (Economics 101). I also realized that most of you never raised another fundamental economic issue; UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BELOW SEVEN PERCENT ARE NOT NECESSARILY DESIRABLE! They signal spot shortages of workers, labor cost inflation and too many marginal employees in the work force. When I went to college, unemployment rates less than five percent were even considered unattainable.
We can now say with certainty that less than five percent unemployment is attainable, mostly due to the use of technology which allows for job searches and remote workers. Yet, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BELOW SEVEN PERCENT ARE NOT NECESSARILY DESIRABLE because they signal labor shortages in many segments of the economy. We can also say with certainty that low unemployment and low population growth rates signal that there are not enough people and money to buy houses and fill schools, let alone fill the jobs we have.
In several functions I recently attended, one Democrat Official and one Republican Official both implied that our low unemployment rates are a good thing. Further, they stated that for Colorado, and the US in general, low unemployment rates were signs that NAFTA and foreign trade were not causing unemployment. In defense of these two officials, as I look back, no one in the Republican Party or the Democratic Party ever raised the population issue or raised the issue that low unemployment numbers are not necessarily good. Also in their defense is that fact that we “keep building on” (not reasonable to do if we were warned).
I have been in business for over thirty years and I would testify in any court that both of these issues have been on the minds of big business people since at least 1990. To be specific, I was directly involved in the building of fiber networks around the country and around the world. Make no mistake; we were doing this to take advantage of abundant, low cost labor in Third World Countries, to avoid labor shortages in the United States, and to avoid governmental oversight, unions and other perceived obstacles to our profit and progress. During this same time period, the “billaries” supported NAFTA and the “bushies” supported every manner of free trade agreement, so neither group can blame one another; however, “we the people” can blame both Parties unless they can publicly demonstrate their fundamental passion for such an important and key economic driver as population growth and a basic understanding that low unemployment is not necessarily desirable.
Should you read my book, Corruption Arts in Third World International Business: Traps, Swizzles, and Swindles Used by the Master Players, hardcover, ISBN: 0-9766996-0-5, and play the reality board game Xemorpheum®, you would immediately ask, “why the *?#@+ would we pursue trade agreements with most of these countries, much less outsource work to them?” Yes, I want to sell a book and a board game as well as promote seminars and consulting services on the subject of real life overseas operations (see my website: www.globalinsights.biz for more information). In my defense, I can only offer that three years in overseas operations motivated me to write the book, develop my material, and commit most of my cash and the rest of my life trying to shape up my own country - not theirs. Their countries can only be changed by their people; their entire business and government structures are trapped in endless corruption cycles that will take generations to correct. The depth and breadth of my passion for my undertaking is partially illustrated by the fact that before I started this work, I was always in telephone company operations, maintenance and construction. I was not a writer/publisher when I began, nor was I a board game designer/manufacturer. I have done, and will continue to learn and do, whatever it takes to help my country, its people and its businesses thrive, not just survive in this very global world.
You may wonder what I expect to accomplish with this open letter that I am sending to over 2,500 newspaper editors and over 25,000 others throughout the month of May. I hope that every one of you is called upon by your constituents to show that you have been raising the two issues covered in this letter. After the scramble to show ‘your’ public record, I am challenging all of the people who see this letter to ask the critical question, “After fifteen to twenty years of neglect on such a basic issue, how do we get back on track?” I am also encouraging them to remind you that we cannot “unabort” children, we cannot make more babies, and we cannot borrow from other states with surplus (we are all in the same boat). After they have some time to think about the issues, I hope they tell you that the only answer “blowing in the wind” is that we must rapidly increase immigration of people who want jobs, can bring families and are willing to learn English. They are also likely to tell you that there aren’t many people out there who want to work and can bring families that are fluent in English.
Once people read this, I encourage them to ask those how we would ever process all “them immigrants” when we can’t even process the “illegal immigrants” we already have. If any of you say, “just staff up like we have done with the border guards”, please remind them that only citizens can work in immigration groups and we don’t have enough workers - much less citizen workers - to do anything.
In my view, the only answer in front of us is to ask “them seniors” that so many of us wanted to get rid of because of their high pay scales to come back to work, fill necessary positions in immigration groups and get us out of trouble. Of course, we will have to apologize to them for saying their miniscule taxed social security payments are a burden on society and that we want to do away with social security down the road in favor of plans that people fund themselves. As incentive, we will probably have to agree to leave their Medicaid entitlements alone in spite of the fact that we know most of us incur 90 percent of our lifetime medical expenses in the final years of our lives. Not to worry though, my guess is that these hard working citizens who built the country we’ve inherited will forgive our collective stupidity and help us out.
As I finish this letter, it is ironic that tomorrow is World Trade Day. I will be attending the function to listen to people who are experts in exporting. Some will even get awards from high ranking government officials. Most of these speakers and honorees produce their product here in the United States and are themselves experiencing the dilemma of worker shortages and rising fuel costs, and yet the subject of people and labor growth is not even on their agenda. This subject must be addressed because when transportation costs increase significantly, things need to be produced closer to home; however, there is currently no significant supply of labor to do so (yes this means we cannot bring outsourced jobs either even if we wanted to). The labor issue also caps the amount of exports, because it is effectively a cap on their production capacity (Economics 102).
Also, ironically, today the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 2.0% to further stimulate a weak economy without ever mentioning that we are population limited. Sorry boys, but interest rates don’t make an economy grow - people do!
In closing, let me remind you that in 1997 China publicly declared that the US would be at its weakest point by 2020 because of this very issue. Why did the “bushies” and “billaries” not see this issue coming and raise the alarm to “we the people”? The fact that they did not says a great deal about their motivations and interests. I am left wishing that we had a much broader definition of Treason for government officials and business people; one that includes economic crimes against the country and failure to act on issues of known and great consequence to our nation. A few examples of this broader definition would include ignoring the need for labor, leaving critical border issues unresolved then invading our own businesses to send people back home, starting wars we can’t win, allowing outsourcing in the face of known global fuel limitations, allowing outsourcing when the negative impacts are clearly quantifiable in dollars and sense (see Chapter 19 in my book). These acts are certainly neither “for the people” nor supported “by the people”.
Sincerely,
Rich Gottbreht
Global Insights Education
“Of the People”
Permission to reprint all or part of this letter is hereby given.
